Well, that was a wild week. The Suns were eliminated despite not dropping a game in the bubble (8-0). The Spurs ended a playoff-appearance streak stretching back to the mid-90s. The Lakers look shaky, the 76ers are hobbled, Russ Westbrook is injured.
Portland took the 8th seed in the West behind a scorched-earth campaign from Damian Lillard and Jusuf Nurkic. The play-in game on Saturday against the 9th-seeded Memphis Grizzlies was a back-and-forth affair. I came away from it very impressed with the potential of Memphis, especially should Jaren Jackson recover fully in time for next season. And I maintain that Portland is must-see TV until further notice.
But now the regular season (bubble and pre-COVID editions) is over, and it’s playoff time! Let’s start with the East.
(1) Milwaukee Bucks vs. (8) Orlando Magic
Games Tuesday, Thursday, Saturday, Monday (plus more if needed).
The Bucks have the best record in the NBA, the reigning (and likely repeat) MVP, a solid offense, and a solid defense. However, they’ve been mediocre since the restart, and that includes a one-game suspension for Giannis (for a headbutt!).
The Magic lost Jonathan Isaac to an ACL tear, and have not won a game against Milwaukee this season. I’d be surprised if this series goes beyond 5 games.
(2) Toronto Raptors vs. (7) Brooklyn Nets
Games Monday, Wednesday, Friday, Sunday (and more if needed)
The Raptors have a fearsome defense and have looked good against anyone not named Boston. I like that Brooklyn’s injuries have forced their backups and youngsters to see more minutes, and that the players have responded pretty well to that: injuries are never welcome, but knowing that your backups can put in quality minutes is making the best of a bad situation.
I think that Brooklyn will be a Top 5 team in the East next year. However, that is a long ways away, and I think that the Raptors move on to the second round pretty easily (in 6 games at most).
(3) Boston Celtics vs. (6) Philadelphia 76ers
Games Monday, Wednesday, Friday, Sunday
Boston is really good. The two Jays are great scorers, they defend well, and they match up pretty well against their Eastern peers. If the 76ers were healthy, though, I’d be inclined to call this series a coin flip, as the Sixers are tall as hell across the board. Unfortunately, with Ben Simmons out for the year, the Sixers are scrambling to assemble a starting lineup that works against Boston. I think that Boston will take advantage of the lack of wing defense and will try to strand Al Horford in mismatches defending Jaylen Brown or Jayson Tatum. Embiid should have a good series, but Celtics likely win it in 6 games.
(4) Indianapolis Pacers vs. (5) Miami Heat
Games Tuesday, Thursday, Saturday, Monday (plus more if needed).
Heat in 6 games. I like their scrappy defense, I like Spoelstra as a coach, Bam Adebayo rules.
For the Pacers, TJ Warren has been a phenom, but I wonder how many minutes they can play Victor Oladipo with the playoff scheduled so condensed. Myles Turner can bang inside but the Heat like to run, so who knows.
And now onto the first round of playoffs in the Western Conference.
(1) Los Angeles Lakers vs. Portland Trailblazers
Games Tuesday, Thursday, Saturday, Monday (plus more if needed).
That’s the good stuff there. Beam it directly into my brain. Portland has been on a tear just to get into the playoffs. They are mercurial, they are inconsistent, they are never dull. The Lakers have been coasting ever since they locked up the 1-seed (3-5 in the bubble), and I really don’t know that I can pick the Lakers to win this series. They have Lebron and Anthony Davis, which is stupendous. There’s no denying that. However, Nurkic is a savvy big who can body up on AD and clog Lebron’s driving lanes. Zach Collins has decent footwork for a giant and can stretch a defense with his perimeter shooting. I’d certainly rather have him on my roster in 2020 than Dwight Howard and JaVale Magee.
On the wings, the Lakers have to use Kyle Kuzma and JR SMITH and Dion Waiters to defend Damian Lillard and CJ McConnell. As Lucius Fox once said, “… good luck!” Conversely, Carmelo Anthony is probably guarding Lebron James, which should be a fascinating matchup.
I’m just gonna say it: Blazers in 7 games. Their defense is porous but they score points like madmen.
(2) Los Angeles Clippers vs. (7) Dallas Mavericks
Games Monday, Wednesday, Friday, Sunday
The Clippers are the best team in the West. We can say that now, right? Where the Lakers look disinterested and have a patchwork roster, the Clippers have balanced the minutes of Kawhi and Paul George and look ferocious. They are even getting back the springy Montrezl Harrel. They have an embarrassment of riches.
Which is good, because they are playing against the explosive Mavs. Luka Doncic is absurdly good running the Dallas offense. He has averaged a triple-double in the bubble and I’m genuinely excited to see how Kawhi handles him over the course of a series. Kristaps Porzingis is also a scoring threat from anywhere on the floor.
The Clips are too good, though. Just tons of defensive prowess, two superstar wings, Doc Rivers as coach. Yeah, I look forward to many years of Luka/Porzingis lineups in Dallas, but this year, Clips in five.
(3) Denver Nuggets vs. (6) Utah Jazz
Games Monday, Wednesday, Friday, Sunday
This is a weird series. The Nuggets have had some injuries but also have seen Michael Porter Jr. develop into a reliable scorer. Between he and Nikola Jokic, the Nuggets have a pretty good inside game. Unfortunately, Gary Harris is an important piece of their offense, and he has been injured. If the Nuggets are forced to score inside or if Jamal Murray goes cold, it plays right into the plans of Quin Snyder’s Jazz, who suffocate the paint around their center Rudy Gobert.
I still think that Denver has the better team and more dynamic playmakers, and should win this series in 7 games. But it isn’t impossible that Donovan Mitchell and the Jazz steal this series.
(4) Houston Rockets vs. (5) Oklahoma City Thunder
Games Tuesday, Thursday, Saturday, Monday (plus more if needed).
Russell Westbrook is injured and will miss part of this series for the Rockets. This puts a strain on Mike D’Antoni’s rotations and a greater emphasis on running the offense through James Harden. He is certainly capable of shouldering the burden, but I like the idea of Chris Paul giving him hell for a full playoff series. At the very least, Harden will find less opportunities for his between-the-legs passes and shenanigans with Paul defending him.
As I mentioned last week, Dennis Schroder left the bubble to be with his wife and newborn. He is a vital piece of the Thunder rotation. I think that the Thunder can outrebound the smaller Houston squad in every game and still the Rockets will win this in 6 games.
I’m excited to see if Steven Adams averages 20 rebounds a game in this series… and I’m doubly excited to see how he does when he has to fight against Russ Westbrook for rebounds now that Westbrook is on the other team. It was already high comedy to see Russ yank rebounds out of his teammate’s hands for years, but now that they are opponents, it should be a free-for-all.
The first round of the NBA playoffs usually has a couple of spicy matchups and a couple of boring ones, and this year is no different. But the absolute silver lining to the bubble setup is that the first round of the playoffs will feel like March Madness. There are four (non-overlapping) games per day for the first round, starting at 1:30 pm today and running through the night.